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  • Causal Inference with Bayesian Networks

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Pearl’s Graph Surgery and Jouffe’s Likelihood Matching illustrated with Simpson's Paradox

To this day, randomized experiments remain the gold standard for generating models that permit causal inference. In many fields, such as drug trials, they are, in fact, the condition sine qua non. Without first having established and quantified the treatment effect (and any associated side effects), no new drug could possibly win approval. This means that a drug must be proven in terms of its causal effect and hence the underlying study must facilitate causal inference.

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